新加坡《联合早报》1月19日报道,台湾知名两岸关系学者苏起认为,海峡两岸很可能在未来四五年内摊牌,台湾再拖也没多少时间;若不想面对武统相斗的代价,就该主动开启对话。
苏起曾在马英九政府担任安全部门秘书长,在2000年4月提出了“九二共识”的说法,目前担任台北论坛董事长。他在星期五(1月19日)其新作《美中对抗下的台湾选择》的发表会上提出以上看法。
苏起星期五出席新书发表会并接受媒体联访时进一步指出,蔡英文过去八年在战术上是成功的,但以维持现状掩饰“两国论”,是战略上的错误,因此苦果就由赖清德来承担。
苏起预判,赖清德未来四年的执政不会非常顺利。
他指出,台湾现在面对两岸问题只剩下三条路,分别是斗、拖、和。但想“拖”是拖不久的,而且拖到后来也不会变得更好。
苏起认为,两岸未来几年会出现最后的摊牌,“未来这四五年,我认为最后Game Over(出现结局)的可能性非常高”。
苏起进一步提到,台湾过去一直不打算付出成本、代价,就想维持现状,甚至独立;但不愿意承担成本,事实上就只能被动等待。
他认为,如果台湾不愿意承担武统的“斗”,就要有勇气面对两岸政治对话的“和”。台湾若主动开启两岸对话,不仅能减轻美国管理两岸危机的压力,也能让北京松一口气,台湾更可以有尊严地设法解决自己的问题。
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