美国雇主上月增聘人数超出预期,工资增幅也很强健,整体而言看不出联准会(Fed)有必要急著在3月就开始调降利率。图/美联社
美国雇主上月增聘人数超出预期,工资增幅也很强健,整体而言看不出联准会(Fed)有必要急著在3月就开始调降利率。
美国劳工部5日公布,美国12月非农就业人口增加21.6万人,11月数据下修为增加17.3万人,而不是原先公布的19.9万人。失业率持平在3.7%。
经济学家原先预测12月非农就业人口淨增16万人,失业率攀升至3.8%。
此外,平均时薪月比攀升0.4%,年比增加4.1%,分别高于市场预期的0.3%和3.9%,显示劳动市场通膨压力仍挥之不去。
路透整理出经济学家和分析师初步评论如下:
Annex财富管理公司首席经济学家杰可布森表示,现在是假期过后退货潮涌现的时节,市场也一样,Fed主席鲍尔去年12月“转鸽”激起的美股与美债涨势,如今逐渐回吐。他认为,这份就业报告乍看下很强,其实强得很“肤浅”,尤其前一个月的数据遭到下修。而且,12月就业成长主要集中在非景气循环部门,像是政府和医疗照护。至于与景气循环密切连动的部门,则显露疲态。整份报告最大的重点,在于工资成长比预期强,与总工作时数下降合起来看便知,整体薪资成本增加幅度“相对轻微”。
Wedbush证券股票交易总经理詹姆士认为,这套就业报告比市场乐见的数据“热了一点”,所以触动美债殖利率上扬,对股市整体来说也可能形成额外的逆风。他说:“基于这份就业报告,对降息的押注只会进一步缩减。”
Spartan
Capital证券首席市场经济学家卡迪洛指出,12月标题就业数据高于预期,但真正问题出在工资成长比预期火热”。劳动参与率降低,可能解释失业率何以持平。他认为,新增就业人数高于预期,一部分可能与季节性因素有关,但无论如何“这份报告都导致对Fed降息的预期起了变化”,期待Fed第1季就调降利率的希望可能减退,现在市场可能开始把启动降息的预估时点往后延。至于对美国经济有何意义,他的解读是:“经济稍稍加速,指向软著陆的可能性。”
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