2023年即将结束,股市策略师开始为2024年把脉,伦敦投资研究公司Macro
Hive表示,2024年可能有9起“灰天鹅”事件等在前面,其中最值得留意的2起灰天鹅事件是,中国在经济低迷之下,被迫重新向西方开放,同时悄悄放弃攻台计划,以及人工智慧(AI)把持股市。
根据《商业内幕》(Business Insider)报道,Macro
Hive发布报告指出,2024年全球金融市场可能出现9起灰天鹅事件,一旦发生,可能震撼全球经济,并造成股市波动。所谓灰天鹅事件是指,发生机率很低、影响巨大,但较能被预测的风险事件。
Macro
Hive列出的9起灰天鹅事件包括,石油输出国家组织(OPEC)与其他大型产油国(OPEC+)瓦解、美国总统拜登放弃连任、美元兑日圆崩跌等。
其中,2起灰天鹅事件需特别注意。Macro Hive策略师提尔尼(John
Tierney)指出,首先是,新冠疫情将在2024年年中拖累中国经济陷入萧条,中国国家主席习近平为李化解社会不安,不再与俄罗斯结盟,而与20国集团(G20)靠拢;在此背景下,中国家加强与西方的贸易,同时悄悄放弃攻台计划。
Macro Hive策略师马塞(Karl
Massey)表示,另一起值得注意的灰天鹅事件就是投资界赫然发现,全球金融市场一直被强大的AI模型把持。这起灰天鹅事件将引发投资人恐慌,导致对风险资产的需求崩盘,监管机构将被迫暂时关闭受影响股市。对全球立法人员而言,这将成为1记警钟,引发全球广泛理解,人类尚未做好因应AI潜在威胁的准备。
ChatGPT等AI聊天机器人已引爆2023年对AI的投资狂潮,让美股7大科技巨头受益。但美国证券交易委员会主席詹斯勒(Gary
Gensler)一再警告AI的风险,不仅是是场灾难的根源,甚至引爆下一场金融危机。
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