5日接受彭博广播专访时说:“我相信Fed已完成升息,但我不认为这就等于情况就如市场所预期,明年会降息”。他警告Fed与市场之间的沟通出了问题,“他们仍有信誉的问题”。
伊尔艾朗前一天接受CNBC访问时则表示,“目前市场热情拥抱美国经济将会半软不硬地着陆,或是软着陆。我认为投资人的热情可能太过,这也使美国金融情势出现空前的单月大放松”。
他表示,在当前金融情势大为宽松的同时,Fed主席鲍尔仍强调政策转向降息的时机“不成熟”,这表示Fed不会为市场的降息猜测背书。
最近美国金融市场高度预期明年Fed将降息,已使公债殖利率剧降。10年期殖利率10月时曾一度冲破5%,但现在只剩4.3%;美股也连袂大涨,标普500指数11月劲扬约9%。标普全球评等公司指出,股、债双双大涨,使金融情势大为宽松,已经达到足以使Fed可能必须再度升息的程度。
伊尔艾朗指出,“我不会像市场一样预期明年3月开始降息,且全年将降息5码,除非你相信经济将陷入衰退。但如果你们相信经济将衰退,则股市不应该涨成现在这样”。
伊尔艾朗认为,Fed仍将维持审慎作法,并提醒投资人后续的通膨数据可能不会像最近那样令人振奋。Fed最终可能会容忍通膨超过2%目标,但不会明白宣示提高通膨目标。
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