美通膨降温年增3.2% 低于预期 继续升息的几率更低了
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美国劳工部14日公布,10月整体消费者物价指数(CPI)于上月相比持平,月升幅0%远低于9月时的0.4%,也低于预估的0.1%;比去年同期则上升3.2%,年升幅远低于9月时的3.7%,也比预估的3.3%略低。
美国10月消费者物价指数(CPI)升幅明显下降,且低于预估,显示联准会(Fed)抑制通膨的努力获得进一步的进展,12月中会议再度升息的几率剧减,也使经济软着陆的几率升高。
美股及美债早盘同步上涨,公债殖利率大幅下降。
整体CPI升幅缩小,主因汽油价格大幅回跌10%;预料11月油价将继续下跌,有利于整体通膨率再降。
路透报导,根据Fed资金期货合约市场的报价,交易员如今认为Fed再继续调高利率的几率不到10%,低于CPI报告出炉前的28%,而明年5月就会开始降息。
美股早盘开高走高,道琼斯指数涨逾300点,美债殖利率下滑,10年期公债殖利率跌破4.5%。
至于扣除能源与食品价格的核心CPI,月升0.2%,低于9月及预估的0.3%升幅;比去年同期上升4.0%,低于9月及预估的4.1%年升幅,也是2021年9月以来最低升幅。
核心CPI升幅相对较大,主因房租、汽车保险及娱乐价格上升,以及健保费率计算方式改变使健保费用比9月大幅提高1.1%。未来几个月居住成本变化将是观察焦点,因为9月房价上涨0.6%,是年中以来最大单月升幅。
10月实质时薪比去年同期大幅增加0.8%,与9月时的0.5%升幅进一步升高;实质周薪则是与去年同期持平;实质周薪并未与时薪同步成长,与平均每周工作时数减少有关。
经济学者表示,通膨下降已接近极限,之前促使通膨下降的力量正在逐渐减弱,物价再降将愈来愈困难。Fed结束升息的几率虽升高,但仍将使利率维持在较高的水准维持更久。
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